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Abstract The evolution of the spatial pattern of ocean surface warming affects global radiative feedback, yet different climate models provide varying estimates of future patterns. Paleoclimate data, especially from past warm periods, can help constrain future equilibrium warming patterns. By analyzing marine temperature records spanning the past 10 million years with a regression‐based technique that removes temporal dimensions, we extract long‐term ocean warming patterns and quantify relative sea surface temperature changes across the global ocean. This analysis revealed a distinct pattern of amplified warming that aligns with equilibrated model simulations under high CO₂conditions, yet differs from the transient warming pattern observed over the past 160 years. This paleodata‐model comparison allows us to identify models that better capture fundamental aspects of Earth's warming response, while suggesting how ocean heat uptake and circulation changes modify the development of warming patterns over time. By combining this paleo‐ocean warming pattern with equilibrated model simulations, we characterized the likely evolution of global ocean warming as the climate system approaches equilibrium. 

Abstract During the early‐to‐middle Miocene, global mean surface temperature (GMST) was approximately 8°C warmer than preindustrial, with a greater temperature increase in polar regions than the tropics. However, existing Miocene simulations underestimate this warmth, particularly in northern high latitudes. To address this discrepancy, we investigate the potential role of cloud phase. Using the Community Earth System Model, we conduct a paleoclimate sensitivity study focused on modifying ice nucleation and cloud phase partitioning schemes. These modifications increase the GMST, with a strong temperature rise in high latitudes and a muted increase in the tropics. These increases are driven by enhanced longwave cloud forcing, resulting from increased ice cloud amounts and cloud water content, and are amplified by water vapor and lapse rate feedbacks in the Arctic. Our study highlights that the improved parameterizations of cloud phase processes enhance models' capability to simulate Miocene high‐latitude warmth and potentially other warm climates. 

Abstract. The Oligocene (33.9–23.03 Ma) had warm climates with flattened meridional temperature gradients, while Antarctica retained a significant cryosphere. These may pose imperfect analogues to distant future climate states with unipolar icehouse conditions. Although local and regional climate and environmental reconstructions of Oligocene conditions are available, the community lacks synthesis of regional reconstructions. To provide a comprehensive overview of marine and terrestrial climate and environmental conditions in the Oligocene, and a reconstruction of trends through time, we review marine and terrestrial proxy records and compare these to numerical climate model simulations of the Oligocene. Results, based on the present relatively sparse data, suggest temperatures around the Equator that are similar to modern temperatures. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) show patterns similar to land temperatures, with warm conditions at mid- and high latitudes (∼60–90°), especially in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Vegetation-based precipitation reconstructions of the Oligocene suggest regionally drier conditions compared to modern times around the Equator. When compared to proxy data, climate model simulations overestimate Oligocene precipitation in most areas, particularly the tropics. Temperatures around the mid- to high latitudes are generally underestimated in models compared to proxy data and tend to overestimate the warming in the tropics. In line with previous proxy-to-model comparisons, we find that models underestimate polar amplification and overestimate the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient suggested from the available proxy data. This further stresses the urgency of solving this widely recorded problem for past warm climates, such as the Oligocene. 

Abstract. Climate variability is typically amplified towards polar regions. The underlying causes, notably albedo and humidity changes, are challenging to accurately quantify with observations or models, thus hampering projections of future polar amplification. Polar amplification reconstructions from the ice-free early Eocene (∼56–48 Ma) can exclude ice albedo effects, but the required tropical temperature records for resolving timescales shorter than multi-million years are lacking. Here, we reconstruct early Eocene tropical sea surface temperature variability by presenting an up to ∼4 kyr resolution biomarker-based temperature record from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 959, located in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This record shows warming across multiple orbitally paced carbon cycle perturbations, coeval with high-latitude-derived deep-ocean bottom waters, showing that these events represent transient global warming events (hyperthermals). This implies that orbital forcing caused global temperature variability through carbon cycle feedbacks. Importantly, deep-ocean temperature variability was amplified by a factor of 1.7–2.3 compared to the tropical surface ocean, corroborating available long-term estimates. This implies that fast atmospheric feedback processes controlled meridional temperature gradients on multi-million year, as well as orbital, timescales during the early Eocene. Our combined records have several other implications. First, our amplification factor is somewhat larger than the same metric in fully coupled simulations of the early Eocene (1.1–1.3), suggesting that models slightly underestimate the non-ice-related – notably hydrological – feedbacks that cause polar amplification of climate change. Second, even outside the hyperthermals, we find synchronous eccentricity-forced temperature variability in the tropics and deep ocean that represent global mean sea surface temperature variability of up to 0.7 °C, which requires significant variability in atmospheric pCO2. We hypothesize that the responsible carbon cycle feedbacks that are independent of ice, snow, and frost-related processes might play an important role in Phanerozoic orbital-scale climate variability throughout geological time, including Pleistocene glacial–interglacial climate variability. 

Abstract The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) has an annual mean location north of the equator today. The factors determining this location and the evolution to its modern state are actively debated. Here we investigate how the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) influences the ITCZ during the early‐to‐middle Miocene. By conducting a sensitivity study with an open Canadian Arctic Archipelago gateway, we show that North Atlantic Deep‐Water formation strengthens the AMOC, in alignment with Miocene North Atlantic ventilation proxies. A vigorous AMOC increases northward Atlantic Ocean heat transport and cross‐equatorial atmospheric energy transport shifts southwards to compensate, pushing the ITCZ northwards. Our study supports AMOC development as a strong contributor to the ITCZ's northern location today. Existing proxy‐based interpretations of ITCZ history are too sparse to strongly confirm these results. We predict a strong in‐phase relationship between AMOC strength and ITCZ's northward location, which should be testable in high resolution paleoclimate records. 

Abstract While high latitude amplification is seen in modern observations, paleoclimate records, and climate modeling, better constraints on the magnitude and pattern of amplification would provide insights into the mechanisms that drive it, which remain actively debated. Here we present multi-proxy multi-site paleotemperature records over the last 10 million years from the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) – the warmest endmember of the global ocean that is uniquely important in the global radiative feedback change. These sea surface temperature records, based on lipid biomarkers and seawater Mg/Ca-adjusted foraminiferal Mg/Ca, unequivocally show warmer WPWP in the past, and a secular cooling over the last 10 million years. Compiling these data with existing records reveals a persistent, nearly stationary, extratropical response pattern in the Pacific in which high latitude (~50°N) temperatures increase by ~2.4° for each degree of WPWP warming. This relative warming pattern is also evident in model outputs of millennium-long climate simulations with quadrupling atmospheric CO₂, therefore providing a strong constraint on the future equilibrium response of the Earth System. 

One of the challenging problems in large scale cyber-argumentation platforms is that users often engage and focus only on a few issues and leave other issues under-discussed and under-acknowledged. This kind of non-uniform participation obstructs the argumentation analysis models to retrieve collective intelligence from the underlying discussion. To resolve this problem, we developed an innovative opinion prediction model for a multi-issue cyber-argumentation environment. Our model predicts users’ opinions on the non-participated issues from similar users’ opinions on related issues using intelligent argumentation techniques and a collaborative filtering method. Based on our detailed experimental results on an empirical dataset collected using our cyber-argumentation platform, our model is 21.7% more accurate, handles data sparsity better than other popular opinion prediction methods. Our model can also predict opinions on multiple issues simultaneously with reasonable accuracy. Contrary to existing opinion prediction models, which only predict whether a user agrees on an issue, our model predicts how much a user agrees on the issue. To our knowledge, this is the first research to attempt multi-issue opinion prediction with the partial agreement in the cyber-argumentation platform. With additional data on non-participated issues, our opinion prediction model can help the collective intelligence analysis models to analyze social phenomena more effectively and accurately in the cyber argumentation platform.